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Corona,where are we?

Dear friends,
this year 2020 is by far the worst in our lifetime. This Corona pandemic has shattered the world like never before. This unique notorious virus has not left anybody untouched, may be rich or poor, pious or impious, devout or secular, religious or irreligious, honest or corrupt, Holy or Evil, male or female, and child or elderly. The world has come to practically a standstill since last 5 months.The disease has affected more than 2.43 crores of people and has caused deaths of 8.30 lacs worldwide.
But amidst this gloom there is also a ray of hope. What are those positive points we all want to know. Today I have with me Dr. Swapnil Kulkarni,a  chest specialist from Pune dealing with covid cases since its Inception to shed some light on those. Luckily, he happens to be my son in law and was part of the team which treated us during our covid illness 2 months back.

Welcome doctor Swapnil. We would like to ask you a few questions and I hope you will enlighten us on the new developments of covid-19.

First question was that what change you see in the covid in last 5 to 6 months?

Swapnil said that the disease originated in China but the information we were getting was quite incomplete. It later on spread to Italy,Brazil,France and then the United States of America. There were huge deaths in these countries and we were all aghast to know that mortality there is very high in spite of those countries being very developed and having amongst the best Healthcare facilities in the world. people of India where worried, and worldwide it was feared that if Corona spreads to India with its vast population,unhygienic living conditions,poverty and illiteracy it will cause lacks of deaths. When it came to India,people were so frightened that they thought that the word Corona spells death. Eventually we came to know  that although the spread was rapid,the mortality was not very much.

Question 2: why do you think Indians did better than the western countries?

Dr. Swapnil said he attributed this to the good immunity of Indians because of exposure to many microorganisms, compulsory BCG and may be many MMR vaccinations we all have received in our childhood, maybe the less virulent strain of corona virus coming to India, prevalence of malaria and hydroxychloroquine most of us have received sometimes during our lifetime.
So the fear has gone down a little bit as worldwide 1.4 crore patients have recovered and out of 65 lacks active patients nearly 99% are with mild infection and only 1% are critical or serious.The death rate worldwide has reduced from nearly 15% at the beginning to less than 5% now.

Question 3:
There are so many microorganisms since ages why this is so dangerous? tell us something about the virus.

Swapnil said this virus or any microorganism is like any other living thing,even like humans. We all living things want to survive & procreate,want to grow our own race. This virus is not our enemy, it just derives nutrition from our cells, inturn infecting it and hampering its proper function, giving us the disease. This SARS COV 2 virus was basically an animal virus living and affecting the bats.Humans started eating bats,so it mutated and got the capacity to infect humans.

Question 4 : what are the other changes you noticed?

Swapnil said there are changes in the mind sets of people,they are  understanding that the lockdown, the masks, the hand hygiene was for their own good and prevention is far better than cure. The social stigma for covid affected patients has gone and the government is also advocating home Quarantine and treatment for the asymptomatic and mild cases. People have learnt to protect the children and elderly  and work from home culture has come to stay for good.

Question 5:
 what is the change in diagnosing and treating the disease?

Doctors the world over are gaining knowledge of the disease very fast.Initially the doctors said:
They did not know what they did not know.
Now they are saying:
They know what they don't know.
Jokes apart,in a nutshell everyday new things are being discovered,like it's spread by aerosol from droplets, safe distance changing from 3 feet to 6 feet, different kinds of masks & their effectivity,harmful effects of excess use of sanitizers etc. Now we know that this is m RNA virus and infects the lungs primarily, but can afffect GIT, the Kidneys, pancreas and even the brain cells. we also know that this virus is active and replicating in our body for initial 8 to 10 days. Afterwards it is the altered immune system which acts against our own body in a term called as "Cytokine Storm", which is responsible for the damage.We also know that this virus can lead to minute blood clots forming in our blood vessels that is dangerous.

Question 6:
What are the Diagnostic tests?

Swapnil said still the gold standard is RT PCR worldwide. Rapid antigen test is good for mass screening and gives fast results. asymptomatic and mild cases are usually not investigated further. moderate cases,the elderly & the people with comorbidities need various blood tests, X-ray and HRCT to diagnose and to monitor the progress of the disease.

Question 7:
what are the advances in treatment?

Swapnil said now that we know the virus is active only in first 10 days, we direct anti-virals in that time period.Hydroxychloroquine, Azithromycin,Doxycycline and Ivermectin act at some point in virus replication. Remdesivir and Favipiravir also act the same way but give better results. Convalescent plasma gives ready made antibodies to combat the virus.Monoclonal antibodies are also being developed with the same results. Interferon is promising, as it modulates the immune system to act in a controlled manner and is shown to resist serious  pneumonia in 80% of the patients.Later on, in second week we need the drugs like steroids to suppress our immune system which starts harming our own cells. predominant is methylprednisolone and dexamethasone. low molecular weight heparin is given to prevent blood clotting.Tocilizumab is given in cases of severe cytokines storm but its effectivity is questionable. the progress is monitored by serial blood tests,x-rays and CT scans.The oxygen saturation is tested many times a day for drop in oxygen saturation below 94% .These patients then may need oxygen by mask, high flow nasal oxygen,non invasive ventilation or proper ventilation with endotracheal intubation. prone position helps to a great extent .

Question 7:
What about vaccines when are they coming?

Good question said Dr Swapnil. There are 155 different types of vaccines being researched at 33 places the world over,but First we all must understand about immunity. We have some natural soldier cells in our blood to fight with infective organism or we can inject our body with readymade soldiers made outside our body called immunoglobulins or antibodies. This is called as "passive immunity".
Then there is something like "active immunity".when our body identifies a foreign antigen or enemy, it produces soldiers,specific antibodies to combat. This is active immunity.
We can inject a dead organism or a living but made harmless organism to stimulate our body to make soldiers or antibodies to fight these enemies,this is vaccination.
Producing a vaccine is a time taking process and takes on an average anything between 4 to 11 years. first the scientists have to identify the genetic Sequencing of the microorganism, then the  antigens are derived. first animal testing on  transgenic animals is done to check the safety and antigenicity, that is the power to stimulate antibody formation.After nearly three months to 2 years of this, the human trial begin. There are usually three to four phases, each taking one two three years minimum when safety and effectivity  is established, the controlling authority like FDA in United States for DGCA in India gives permit for mass production. Making it commercially viable and available is a tedious process and involves the dosing,single or multidose vials packing, plastic or glass containers, prefilled syringes and needles, wrapper packing, storage, safe transport maintaining cold chain, expiry date and pricing. For Corona vaccine many steps are omitted maintaining the safety standards and ignoring the effectivity a bit. So many vaccines are entering stage 3.Moderna  in United States,Oxford University with Astrazeneca and serum Institute of India, our own Bharat Biotech vaccine, Pfizer of Germany and the US,the chinese vaccine etc. Russia has started administration already amidst many contraverseries. More the vaccines better it is as they may act complementary to each other and we will have a choice.Competition will reduce the Monopoly and the price.

Question 8:
Dr Swapnil, very important question is that how effective the vaccine will be? how much doses will be needed? For how much time it will give us immunity means how long will it last? or are like influenza vaccine will it have to be taken every year?and is it possible to make  a different vaccine every year for new strains of virus?

Again a good question doctor Swapnil said,we the doctors & scientists the world over still don't have answers to all these questions. Only time will tell & continious evaluation will be an ongoing process. But,vaccines will come early & even if it won't protect one hundred percent,it will surely reduce the severity of the disease & that will help a lot.This coronavirus is mRNA virus it mutates but fortunately  the mutated strain has many similar characteristics,so it is easy to make vaccine for the mutated strain and in short span of time. It can be compared to the famous movie Sholay : Viru can change to Jay but not Gabbar!😄

Question 9:
another very important question what is herd immunity? we have been hearing for quite some time now.

The capacity of any microorganism to spread from one person is measured in R0 or R zero the R0 of Cov2 is 2 to 3, means one person can infect 2 to 3 others.These three in turn will infect other 9 .These 9 will infect next 27 like that it is exponential spread. Out of the first three,if 2 persons have  developed antibodies against the microorganisms either by having the disease or by vaccination then then only one person can get infected.Then the spread is limited automatically. The average 60% of people if develop antibodies then they protect remaining 40% this is herd immunity for Corona and it is happening in few clusters in metros.

Question 10 :
Doctor Swapnil,what are the positive take home message from you?

Yes,Swapnil said,
we now understand this disease better,we have better Diagnostic tools and better medicines to fight,we have better equipped hospitals,vaccines are coming,soon herd immunity may help further,the death rate worldwide is already down from nearly 15 to 5% or even less,and even if corona is still growing fast in India,death rate is lesser maybe because of the factors like BCG and MMR vaccine discussed earlier. with more testing and people following the safety norms the death rate will come down 2.5 to 2.2 %. If the death rate will be like any other  diseases with which we are living like typhoid,Malaria,Influenza, Meningitis then the fear will go down rapidly.
So guys, cheer up,be ready to be back into action,convert this tragedy into opportunity.Supply the world with our own Corona vaccine like Covaxine or Oxford vaccine manufactured in serum Institute of India,be ready to welcome many world leader companies who will be having factories in India like Apple.

Also it is time to introspect learn from the mistakes made either from the acts of omission like not quarantining the foreign travellers in spite of World Health Organisation warning in January 2020 that Corona is a pandemic and causing immense miseries to the the five crore migrant workers,not giving them enough time to go back to  their homes before announcing the  lockdown.But the mistakes made by the the acts of commission,done by most of us,by not following the physical distancing,wearing of proper masks, and not doing proper hand hygiene are as grave for spread of this deadly disease.
History we learn not just to glorify  the achievements but to learn not to repeat the mistakes done in the past.
Covid-19 has very badly exposed our Healthcare  system.Health is a basic human right which is completely ignored since Independence by all the governments.The government hospitals are are catering to only 14% of outpatients and 40% of indoor patients in India.The government facilities are very ill-equipped,managed very badly and have the long waiting list.The allocation for Healthcare in in Indian Budget is only  1.15 percent of GDP which the current government is planning to increase to 2.25 percent by the year 2025. Most of the the developed countries have budgetary  allocation of 6 to 10% of GDP in stark contrast.They say that the sign of a developed country is that when the rich travel by public transport rather than by their own vehicle. I would say India will be developed Healthcare vise when most of the the politicians will take treatment  at the government hospitals.The doctor and paramedics ratio to the population is very less and we should have more government medical colleges producing quality  Healthcare workers. Ayurveda and homoeopathy should be promoted systematically doing scientific research and publishing the results.we the doctors,paramedics(government & private both) and the police force are exposed to covid more than anybody else,still we have to face the the wrath of the general public over death of of patients and the government,for hospital bills.The fact is that,in very few countries in the world there are hospitals owned and managed by solo practitioners,unlike in India. The solo practitioner like us are not happy  running own small Nursing Home and Hospital.We are not happy because we know we can neither do justice to our own medical skills nor can we do justice to the patients.We are managing cases with our Limited facilities,have to refer patients elsewhere for investigations and complex surgeries.For giving all the facilities under one roof,we require big multispeciality Hospitals. They incur huge  initial investments and a big running cost,resulting in higher billing,which is inevitable. But,it also calls for public and government wrath. The government  should make all the the municipality and district hospitals well equipped multispeciality hospitals.We are are ready to serve there where we will get work satisfaction and reasonably good salary too.
To achieve this,we have to to cut shot on unnecessary expenditures,like on politicians for their security,palatial housing,huge perks like lifetime free travel,subsidized food, pension etc.SPG for the prime minister,the President & some top officials holding very crutial posts for the nation is ok,but why every MLA requires full time security with Gunman? Also there is a need to curb the corruption which has eroded our economy from top to bottom. The commissions of inquiry act has to be modified to give them more powers if we really want the results. The inquiry commission set up to investigate  64 crores kickback scam in Bofors deal of 1986 had spent more than 250 crores till 2011 & the case was closed without any conclusions.At present the report of a commission has no binding force by itself & it cannot impose a penalty.
I am astonished to note that no government has done anything to slow down the population explosion by implementing strict family planning norms,which is the main deterrant to developement of the country. I hope it is the next thing on the agenda of our esteemed prime minister.

Corona has taught the world to behave,preserve nature,be eco friendly, humane to the plants,trees and animals. The nature seems to have formatted its computer and deleted many of us from its hard disk.Corona has brought the world together. The fear of death has made the man realise the importance of giving,receiving and spreading love. The man is understanding the importance of peace because the huge armies with all the nuclear arsenals are helpless against these microorganisms. It's time to end the war altogether. And the whooping 15% of the budgetary allocation to the defence can partly be shifted to  Healthcare,education,family planning and building basic infrastructure of our country like roads,drinking water & better public transport.

To end,I will again emphasize,that we are opening & unlocking not because it is safe,but to rebuild the economy. Don't ever lower your guards against corona,it is deadly & deceptive.

Thanks,Dr Swapnil for being with us. Bye for now my dear friends.🙏🙏

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